In a whirlwind turn of events, Canadians were gearing up for a real estate frenzy not too long ago, but the landscape has swiftly transformed. The Bank of Canada's Survey of Consumer Expectations has revealed a surprising shift in housing plans for Q3 2023. Despite a booming population, it appears that fewer folks are now considering buying, selling, or even moving homes.

Firstly, the dream of homeownership seems to be slipping away for many. Only 12% of Canadian households are planning to buy a home within the next year, down by 1 point. This is quite unusual given the record population growth, and it's likely a reflection of sky-high prices that are putting homeownership out of reach for many. But here's the twist: recent immigrants, known as "newcomers," have shown a keen interest in buying homes, with a whopping 29% looking to do so. However, the math behind their median income doesn't quite add up for such a high percentage, suggesting a potential reality check. Meanwhile, fewer Canadians are packing up and planning to move elsewhere, with the share dropping 2 points to 19% in Q3 2023. Once again, newcomers are disproportionately represented, with 44% of them eyeing a change in residence – not surprising given their more pressing housing needs. When it comes to selling, fewer Canadians are considering it, with just 11% planning to put their homes on the market. Oddly, newcomers who already own homes are overrepresented here, with 27% planning to sell, leaving us with tantalizing questions about their motivations. The intriguing part is that consumer real estate expectations are cooling, but they tend to lag behind reality. While households might not be leading indicators, they do provide coincidental data. The market is already witnessing a surge in inventory and a decrease in buyers, to the extent that it's the most supplied it's been in over a decade. Even Canada's largest banks are surprised by this rapid shift, with at least two predicting lower home prices in the near future. It's a real estate mystery that's unfolding before our eyes, and it could have significant implications for the housing market.